The Delusion of “Turning Texas Blue”
POV: Democratic voter, activist, non-profit organizer, former precinct chair, former delegate to the state convention, and former state house candidate.
At this point in time, the idea of “Turning Texas Blue” is a delusion at best, and a lie at worst. In 2022, how excited were we during Beto’s campaign against Abbott for the governorship only to lose by 11 points? In 2024, how excited were we during Allred’s campaign against Cruz for the U.S. Senate only to lose by 8 points? For the Democratic activists and voters, how much time, effort, and money did you pour into those races? Since I have been an active participant in Texas politics, beginning with Obama’s 2008 campaign, the Texas Democratic Party has been talking about “Turning Texas Blue” and from my perspective zero progress has been made toward that goal in the 16 years I’ve been involved. Each election cycle, this tired slogan is trotted out to inspire us to believe that a Democrat can win a statewide race, which hasn’t been done since the 1990s.
For years, the increasing diversity of Texas has been talked about as something that would benefit Democrats. It wasn’t necessarily the “demographics are destiny” argument (popular during the Obama years), but over time the assumption was that Texas would become more competitive. This is now a false claim. An incorrect assumption. A majority of Latino voters backed Trump, and he flipped almost every majority-Latino county in South Texas, which has been a Democratic stronghold for decades. It is now clear that the 2018 election produced an enormous mirage for Texas Democrats. High Democratic turnout that year, the first federal election after Trump’s 2016 win, produced a close U.S. Senate race between Beto and Cruz and the flipping of 12 state house seats. The result, for me, was sincerely believing in 2020 that Texas was becoming a battleground state. That year, Democrats truly felt they could flip the Texas House, but they ended up not increasing their power in the state’s lower chamber at all. In 2022 and 2024 the results were even worse.
Some like to say, “Texas isn’t a red state, it’s a non-voting state.” This has proven to be both untrue and unhelpful. First, Texas is a red state. And it’s getting redder. Second, Texas may be a non-voting state in the sense that we have low turnout, but the Democrats are failing to inspire people to vote. Those who do vote back Republicans. Those are the facts. Democratic efforts to increase voting haven’t worked. Democrats just lost the Latino vote. Texas is not “turning blue.” Again, it’s turning redder because our own voters are now voting for Republicans. That’s not a “non-voting” problem. That is a “we aren’t connecting with voters” problem. Whether it’s in the Rio Grande Valley or the big urban centers, voters are simply not interested in what Texas Democrats are offering them. We can blame the voters themselves all we want, but politics is about power, and Texas Democrats don’t have any because they haven’t figured out what Texas voters want.
What is the takeaway for me? I am no longer invested in “turning Texas blue.” I will no longer give one day of my time or one dollar of my money supporting statewide races. I’m sure great candidates will step up to run, but I’m done deluding myself that we can win statewide. I will instead invest all my time and money in local and county races. Texas is a red state, full stop. Republicans have a supermajority and total control of state government. Texas is ground zero for Christian Nationalism. Democrats should be realistic about what we can accomplish here. Instead of constantly trying to “turn Texas blue” by winning a statewide race, I suggest we focus on winning school board races, city council seats, mayorships, county commissioner court seats, and maybe state house and state senate seats. The state party and its activists and organizers should focus on winning winnable seats at the local level so we can leverage what power there is to leverage. This will also help build the bench of experienced and knowledgeable candidates who can possibly run competitive campaigns later for the governorship and congressional races.
You can disagree with everything I am saying. That is your prerogative. But please don’t bother trying to say that I’m wrong. When it comes to political strategy, it’s clear that nobody within the Texas Democratic Party can claim to know what is right/wrong when it comes to elections. I don’t have any trust or faith in the people running the state party and I resent calls to “turn Texas blue.” It ain’t happening, and I’m done deluding myself and lying to myself about it. I will continue to invest my time, energy, and money into local races where people can win and impact people’s lives for the better. The state party needs to reinvent itself from the ground up by learning what voters want and actually winning races. The top-down approach of importing national Democratic talking points is not working. Texas Democrats should no longer take their cues from national Democrats and should start rebuilding an authentic message for Texas voters based on the reality of where Texas voters are at on the issues. The way Democrats will win in Texas will look different from how Democrats win in other states…this must be the starting point for future organizing and campaigns.