Voting for Beto: A Low-Risk, High-Reward Proposition

Texas Democrats have been telling me they’re going to “turn Texas blue” my entire adult life (I am 35) and I have finally resigned myself to the improbability of this goal. More importantly, I no longer know what that phrase was ever even supposed to mean. Of course, we think of states as being “red” or “blue” because of the winner-take-all nature of the Electoral College system, but most states, even those with one-party control of state government, have significant portions of their population that vote for the other party. In other words, we have a lot of purple states! Furthermore, it is important for voters to understand that a single election is very unlikely to completely transform a state and this realization can help them more accurately perceive what is at stake with their vote.

Let’s continue using Texas as an example. What was at stake in 2020 if Democrats took control of the Texas House or if Joe Biden won the state’s Electoral College electors? Would Texas have “turned Blue” in either of those scenarios? No. In the case of the state legislature, the Texas Senate would still have been controlled by the GOP and the governor would have remained a Republican. The state would have had divided government and the result would have been an increase in moderate, bi-partisan bills. If Joe Biden had won Texas, it wouldn’t have changed anything about state government! Republicans have controlled the Texas House, Texas Senate, and governorship since 2003 and it is almost impossible to conceive of a time when Democrats will have that much power.

Yet, Republicans promote the same black-or-white version of what is at stake in elections as Democrats. Governor Greg Abbott’s website says, “Don’t California My Texas.” The implication being that if his opponent, Democrat Beto O’Rourke, wins the governor’s race, then Texas will be transformed into liberal California. Is this true? Not at all. If Beto somehow beats the odds and wins in November, then Texas will still have a divided government where Republicans and Democrats share power. In other words, Beto will not be able to implement a liberal or progressive agenda simply because he is governor. The Texas legislature will still be controlled by Republicans! It is very important for voters, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, to understand this reality because it clarifies what is at stake when casting a ballot.

I argue that for the vast majority of Texans, regardless of their political views, voting for Beto in November presents a low-risk, high-reward opportunity. What makes a vote for Beto low-risk? The fact that he will have to govern with a Republican-controlled state legislature. The GOP would need to pass bills that Beto is willing to sign, but he wouldn’t be able to force them to pass bills they don’t want to pass. The result would likely be moderate, bi-partisan legislation instead of the far-right, extremist laws we’ve seen in recent years. Voters need to understand that Beto wouldn’t be able to deliver a progressive wish-list, and for that reason, wouldn’t be able to do a whole lot that would enrage conservatives either.

If you’re a conservative who loves guns, but want the electrical grid to actually get fixed, then vote for Beto! It doesn’t matter what he thinks about AR-15s because the Texas legislature is unlikely to pass any gun violence prevention laws that would regulate firearms. Okay, maybe they could decide to raise the age to purchase an AR-15, but that bill would have to be passed by the Republican-controlled Texas House and Texas Senate (pretty unlikely). Beto could insist on more reforms to the electrical grid, though, and maybe call a special session next summer to get it done if the GOP failed to pass a bill in the spring.

If you’re an Independent who generally favors limited government, but you are angry that abortion is now illegal in Texas without exceptions for rape and incest, then vote for Beto! He’s not going to be able to raise your taxes, or create new social welfare programs, but he can sign a bill that restores some semblance of reproductive rights to women in Texas. Would the Republicans in the Texas legislature pass a bill to loosen restrictions on abortion? I think the current law is so extreme it makes anything possible, but only if there is a pro-choice governor.

If you’re a teacher or parent of a public-school student, regardless of your politics, and you care about strengthening public schools, then vote for Beto! More crazy bills restricting what can be taught in Texas schools? Won’t be signed by Beto. Vouchers that would divert money from public schools to private, religious schools? Won’t be signed by Beto. Harmful testing policies from the Texas Education Agency? Beto would get to appoint a new commissioner. Seriously, the constant waves of attacks against public education would just crash against the wall of a pro-public education veto.

Lastly, if you’re a liberal or progressive, and you care about Texas not becoming ground zero for Christian Nationalism in the United States, then vote for Beto! He won’t “turn Texas blue,” but he will create a check on the excesses of the far-right in Texas. He won’t sign a budget unless some of his priorities are included, which would mean more funding for education and health care. Parents of trans children would no longer be investigated by the state for child abuse. Voting rights would no longer be restricted and attacked. That ain’t nothing.

So, whether you’re a Republican, Democrat, or Independent, I encourage you to cast a ballot for Beto in November. The GOP has had one-party control of Texas for the last 20 years. That makes a vote for Beto a high-reward possibility. As it stands, we lead the nation in mass shootings and lack of health insurance. Our power grid fails if it’s too hot or too cold. Our schools are under-funded, and our educators are actively vilified. Women have lost the power to make decisions about their own bodies. It is far more likely that government will reflect the will of the people if everyone has a seat at the table. If competing parties must negotiate and compromise, then radical and extreme bills won’t pass. Having a Republican legislature and Democratic governor would bring back some checks and balances to Texas government. For this reason, a vote for Beto really is a low-risk, high-reward proposition. What is really at stake in the election this November is not “turning Texas blue” or allowing Texas to “turn into California” but the opportunity to “turn the page” on the extremism of the last 10 years. Y’all, the way I see it, nothing bad can happen, and a whole lot of good just might.